Projected more than 1 million cases of COVID-19 before the end of April

Projected more than 1 million cases of COVID-19 before the end of April

As the Philippines continues to handle the increase of Covid-19 infections, the OCTA Research Group projected that the country will have more than one million cases before the end of April.

Due to the implementation of the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) the Covid-19 transmission has slowed in Metro Manila, as shown in their latest monitoring report, however, infections still grew by 20% with 5,538 daily new cases over the past week, the independent team of experts revealed.

“Before the end of April, the Philippines is expected to have recorded more than 1,000,000 total COVID-19 cases,” they said.

As of Sunday afternoon, the Philippines has 795,051 infections with 646,100 recoveries and 13,425 deaths.

Metro Manila’s reproduction number from March 29 to April 4 also decreased to 1.61, meaning each COVID-19 case could infect more than one other person.

The reproduction number is “trending down towards 1.3 or less by April 11,” OCTA said.

“It is clear that the lockdown has been effective in slowing down the increase in the number of new cases in the NCR. With an additional week of ECQ… the goal is to bring the reproduction number down to 1 or close to it,” the experts said.

The transmission has slowed down in Manila, Parañaque, Marikina, and Navotas, while Pasay and Makati recorded a downward trend in new cases, the research group noted.

However, “rapid increases” in new infections were still observed in Mandaluyong, Las Piñas, and San Juan.

“The goal is for these LGUs to have low or negative one-week growth rates in new COVID-19 cases very soon,” the experts said.

OCTA also warned that the hospital beds for COVID-19 could be filled up soon. They also said that the added hospital beds helped bring down the hospital occupancy rate in some cities.

“We will still be seeing 11,000 to 12,000 plus [cases] per day for the next week or so,” OCTA Research fellow Professor Guido David said.

Source: GMA News

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